Built July 10–11, 2026 · walk-forward backtest over 71 main slates (2022–25) · adversarially audited · DORMANT — paper season Sept
Verdict: NO-GO for real money on open-lobby double-ups.
Best honest estimate ≈ 47% win rate (range 45–49%) vs the 50% breakeven against a true $5 double-up field. The machinery works — the field's projections are simply as good as ours. Total cost of learning this: $0.
Win rate vs the cash line · full 0–100% scale
vs raw recon line50.7%
honest DU offset +1.547.2%
calibrated line +345.1%
line +539.4%
random legal lineups9.1%
Reference line = 50% breakeven (double-up pays 2× entry to the top 43.5%; 13% rake verified from contest purse math). Headline CI [39.4%, 62.0%] — statistically a coin flip at n=71.
+41.6
optimizer lift over random legal lineups (win-rate pts)
0.910
corr: simulated field vs Levitan's real H2H results
52.6 / 50.7
predicted vs realized P(cash) — self-estimate is honest
~2,175
slates needed to prove a 53% edge; you get 17/season
Season stability the audit's sharpest finding
Season
Slates
vs raw line
Mean margin
2022
18
55.6%
+0.8
in-sample
2023
17
47.1%
−1.2
2024
18
61.1%
+0.5
carried the edge
2025
18
38.9%
−9.9
collapse
What got built all validated · all free · all reusable
Prop-implied projections
beats LineStar's own projections OOS (MAE 5.38 vs 5.42) from free market lines
Cash-line reconstruction
124 real double-ups; line = field median +3.3 ±0.7; twin contests agree within 1 pt
Levitan calibration
0.910 correlation with published real results; field bias measured, not guessed
Cheap target-spike screener
≤$4K + prev wk 7 tgt/5 rec → +4.1 pts over band, half the bust rate re-validate OOS live
Target value by depth
54,314 targets: screens 1.41 pts/tgt → 20+ air yds 2.09 ±3.4; EV flat 0-15 yds
Variance model
TD-share = #1 widener (±5.9 vs ±7.3 at equal means); catch-share = #1 tightener
Data archive
DK salaries/pts/slates/ownership 2014-25 · props 2019-25 · pbp w/ EPA+wind · 4.9M-word pod corpus
September plan paper only · evidence decides
Wks 1-2 paper: lineup logged at lock, graded Monday vs real cash lines; collect DK standings before the 4-day purge.
Measure the beginner lobby — everything above grades vs the toughest pool on the site; sub-$5 lobbies (vets barred) are plausibly softer.
Re-validate the screener out-of-sample; wire in wind >15mph + funnel-EPA layers; start Kalshi NFL prop harvest.
Projections-vs-field is the only lever with real headroom — the optimizer already does its job.